2013 PUBLICATIONS

FORECASTS

Strategic Global Forecast to 2030. Ed. by A.A. Dynkin. Moscow, Magistr, 2013, 432 pp. (перевод с русск.) This Forecast represents interdisciplinary research of a probabilistic character. It is based on a vision of global prospects shared by a large group of experts, who have been scrutinizing various global problems, as well as separate regions and countries, for quite a long time. The statistical framework consists of forecast assessments of GDP, labor productivity, R&D spending and other indicators derived with the aid of IMEMO`s original methodology. The Forecast objective is to highlight the risks and opportunities for Russia from key global political and economic trends. The Forecast describes the trends of global development and the forms in which they manifest themselves in various spheres of society - ideology, the economy, social relations, and politics. A separate section discusses the centers and regions of global development. The results of the analysis of prospects for global development determine the risks and opportunities facing Russia. This publication is intended for the staff of governmental organizations, businesspeople, members of the expert community, and the public at large.

MONOGRAPHS

• Bystrova Anna K. The problems of the global infrastructure in the Central Asia. The optimization of the role of Russia. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 98 p.
  The monograph deals with the main trends of global infrastructure development in the Central Asia (transport, communication, water and energetic infrastructure). The models of infrastructure development in this region are analyzed considering the interests of the main power centers in the contemporary world. The activities of international organizations, which make influence on shaping global infrastructure in the Central Asia, are reviewed. The role of Russia in this process is studied and recommendations for improving it are made.


• Global crisis and its aftereffects: increase of ethnic-social-cultural contradictions. Eds. E. Gontmacher, N. Zagladin, I. Semenenko. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 119 p.
  The volume comprises the results of research presented and discussed at a conference held at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences on February 26, 2013. It is dedicated to the nature of conflicts in the contemporary world in context of crisis development years 2008-2013. Special attention is paid to the social and political problems arising from the intensification of migration flows in the leading countries of the world accentuated by the crisis, and to the evaluation of their current aftereffects.


• Kuznetsov A.V., Lee J.-Y., Lee S.-B., Min J.-Y. Russian ODI and FDI promotion strategy of Korea. (in Korean with English executive summary). Seoul, KIEP, 2013, 294 p.
  The study focuses on patterns and recent condition of the increasing Russian ODI since 2000, and Korea’s investment promotion policy toward Russia and its achievements. The study is conducted with many methods including document research, statistical analysis, survey on Russian businesses and experts interviews. Theoretical and statistical analyses on Russian ODI is presented. The study also attempts to demonstrate the main features of Russian overseas direct investment. Motivations and strategies of Russian ODI are analyzed. Korea’s current foreign direct investment and its major features are reviewed. In the last chapter, attractive sectors for Russian investors and measures for increasing Russia’s investment to Korea are suggested.


• Social components of innovation development. Eds. F.E. Burdzhalov, E.Sh. Gontmaher, I.V. Grishin. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 135 p.
  This paper has analyzed the social-economic preconditions of innovation development. In the course of research the authors discovered uneven spreading of innovation development in the world and its reasons; demonstrated the influence of different phases of business cycle on the innovation process and on the demand for adequate labor force (according to qualification and professional training); established the meaning of migration for reducing of its deficit; examined the role of large metropolitan areas in the labor force development; the special subject of the study is the structure of human capital, its formation and correlation of its components. The general conclusion – the adequate quality of the labor force predetermine not only the possibility of innovation development itself but its effectiveness as well.


• M. Strezhneva, I. Prokhorenko. Economic Governance in the European Union: Institutional and Political Issues. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 155 p.
  The publication presents the political process of decision-making, decision - taking and implementation as concerns the Single European Market and the Economic and Monetary Union, in which supranational institutions, national governments, transnational corporations, social partners, experts and citizens participate. Three key modes of EU economic governance are displayed – supranational legal regulation, financial (budgetary) mode and coordination of national courses of economic policy. Their examination and juxtaposition allows for certain comments on the future evolution of the EU political organization.

COLLECTIONS OF ARTICLES

• Challenges to Security in Central Asia. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 150 p.
  The book is based on the results of the international conference - Challenges to Security in Central Asia, organized by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of sciences (IMEMO RAN) and Foundation for Prospective Studies and Initiatives (PSIF) with the support of the Fund For the Support of Public Diplomacy by A. Gorchakov and Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES in the RF) in the end of November, 2012. Leading experts from Russia, Central Asia states, China, India, Germany, France, Spain, Poland and USA took part in it. During the conference global, regional and national political, economic and military factors and aspects of the security situation in Central Asia were analyzed with a special focus on the role of key actors in the region. The discussion revealed difference in the estimations of the development of the situation in the region. Still, the common opinion is, that the sustainable stabilization in the region demands coordination of the efforts of the leading global actors, as well as of the Central Asia states themselves. The book consists of three parts: analytical report ? Challenges to Security in Central Asia, proceedings of the conference and the theses, prepared by experts-participants of the conference.


• Energy Security: National, Regional and Global Aspects. Eds. Yu. Kvashnin, K. Voda. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 121 p.
  This volume of IMEMO‘s series "Global Development" is focused on major topical issues of energy security. It is based on results of the eponymous roundtable, which took place in May 2013. The authors of this volume are young and promising scientists – employees of IMEMO RAS. The roundtable and the volume were supported by international company "BP" (donation agreement No c 287-10, 21.12.2010). This publication is intended for researchers, teachers, postgraduate students as well as a wide range of readers who are interested in current world energy trends and energy efficiency issues.


• Modern Greece in the Global Economy and Politics. Executive Editor Y.D. Kvashnin. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 184 p.
  This publication is based on the results of IMEMO's research project on South European debt crisis which were presented at the conference “Economic and political situation in Greece: local and global aspects”, attended by experts from IMEMO as well as Lomonosov Moscow State University, Institute of Europe RAS, Institute of Universal History RAS, Centre for Situation Analysis RAS, Russian Institute of Strategic Research and other research centers. The study covers various aspects of the ongoing debt crisis in Greece and its impact on global economy, the possible application of Greek-type anti-crisis policy to other EU countries. Special attention is given to Greece’s political developments, the current state and prospects for Russian-Greek relations.


• North – South – Russia 2012 Yearbook. Executive Editor V. Khoros and D. Malysheva. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 213 p.
  As before, the latest issue of the “North – South – Russia” Yearbook covers major events and trends of 2012 related to interactions between the developed Center and developing countries of Periphery and Semi-Periphery. Russia’s interests and positions in this context is important theme. Special attention is given to continuing debt crisis in Europe, Russia-American relations, conflict around Syria, economic and political changes in China and so on. Different problems are examined both at global and regional levels (including East Asia, South-East Asia, Asia, Latin America, CIS etc.). As usual, there is some information on academic activities and recently published books.


• Problems of integration of natural gas and electricity markets in American economy. Part III. Editor S.V. Zhukov, V.V. Tatsiy. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 110 p.
  The third final part in the series of publications dealing with various aspects of interaction among natural gas and electricity markets in the USA incudes analysis of hubs and market centers role in functioning of gas spot market, corporate structures in upstream, midstream and downstream sectors of value added chain in the gas industry, and integration of natural gas and electricity markets. Special attention is paid to multienergy holding structures, which through cross sharing and using master limited partnerships operate as “soft” vertically integrated companies, as well as to attempts of launching of financial derivatives market for electricity.



Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security. IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2012. Ed. by Alexei Arbatov and Alexandre Kaliadine. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013. 200 pp. The 13th edition of Russia: Arms control, Disarmament and International Security provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2012 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address issues involving transition to multilateral nuclear disarmament (engaging ‘third’ nuclear armed states in nuclear arms control negotiations; frameworks of multilateral nuclear disarmament; a possible basis of practical negotiations). This year’s edition also highlights BMD developments and their implications for strategic stability; problems of limiting international trade in small arms and light weapons; the status of European conventional arms control regime and ways leading to meaningful arms limitation arrangements in Europe; military posture of post-Soviet Central Asian states and regional security challenges.

• «Third World: half century later» Executive Editors V. Khoros and D. Malysheva. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013. 262 p.
  It took about half a century when problematic of the so-called developing countries and development studies, as well as relations between the Center and the Periphery i.e. the North (the West) and the South (the East) in the foreign and domestic literature appeared. Since then, the configuration of the world order has changed significantly, and the changes are caused primarily by globalization. The authors, scholars of IMEMO RAS aimed at the identification of the main trends of these changes in the economic, political and cultural spheres, and also in international relations. Besides, adjustments were made to the interpretation of such notions as "third world", "developing countries", "catch-up development" and others. These concepts developed decades ago have continued to be used by inertia. The study of these problems is important to understand the role and place of Russia in the context of center- periphery relations.

«Typology of conflicts: “new wars” and the situation in the Middle East» Ed. by Irina Kobrinskaya. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013. 95 pp. The volume «Typology of conflicts: “new wars” and the situation in the Middle East» is based on the results of international conference, organized by IMEMO RAS in June, 2013 with the support of International Committee of the Red Cross. Leading Russian experts and representatives of International Committee of the Red Cross and Medecins Sans Frontieres organization participated in the conference. Global, regional and national peculiarities of the Middle East situation were under consideration. The work consists of two parts: transcript of the conference and articles prepared by the participants.

BROCHURES

• Korean Nuclear Crisis: Prospects of De-escalation. Eds. A.G. Arbatov, V.Z. Dvorkin, S.K. Oznobishchev. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 68 p.
  This is the tenth publication of the series titled “The Prospect of Multilateralizing Nuclear Disarmament Process”, which is to be issued in the framework of joint project implemented by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Inc. (NTI). It is based on the discussion at the conference held in IMEMО RAN on March 28, 2013.
  This research report was commissioned by the Nuclear Security Project (NSP) of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). For more information see the NSP website at http://www.nuclearsecurity.org. The views expressed in this paper are entirely the authors' own and not those of the IMEMO or NSP.


• Monitoring of Mutual Investments in the CIS - 2013. Authors: A.V. Kuznetsov (leader), Y.D. Kvashnin, A.V. Gutnik ; project coord. A.M. Anisimov (Report № 15). Saint Petersburg, EDB Centre for Integration Studies, 2013, 54 p.
  The report contains new results of the research project aimed at maintenance and development of the database for monitoring of mutual investments in CIS countries and Georgia. The general picture of mutual investments is provided as of the end of 2012. For the first time there is analysis of interregional contrasts of FDI distribution inside Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Special attention is paid to Cyprus as the largest offshore used for investments in the CIS region. Impact of close integration within the developing Eurasian Economic Union at mutual direct investments is considered separately. Methodological issues and prospects of the project are reported separately.


• Nuclear Non-Proliferation in the Middle East Context. Eds. A.G. Arbatov, V.Z. Dvorkin, S.K. Oznobishchev. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2013, 86 p.
  This is the eleventh publication of the series titled “The Prospect of Multilateralizing Nuclear Disarmament Process”, which is to be issued in the framework of joint project implemented by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Inc. (NTI). It is based on the discussion at the conference held in IMEMО RAN on October 13, 2013.
  This research report was commissioned by the Nuclear Security Project (NSP) of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). For more information see the NSP website at http://www.nuclearsecurity.org. The views expressed in this paper are entirely the authors' own and not those of the IMEMO or NSP.



Stepanova E. Russia's Concerns Relating to Afghanistan and the Broader Region in the Context of the US/NATO Withdrawal. Policy Research Papers. Barcelona: CIDOB, June 2013, 23 p. A new Policy Research Report by Dr Ekaterina Stepanova, IMEMO's lead researcher and head of Peace and Conflict Studies Unit, entitled «Russia's Concerns Relating to Afghanistan and the Broader Region in the Context of the US/NATO Withdrawal», has been published by Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB). The report is part of an international project «Sources of Tension in Afghanistan and Pakistan - Regional Perspectives».

Stepanova E. (principal author). Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Threat Assessment / Report by U.S.-Russia expert group on the Afghan narcotrafficking. N.Y., EastWest Institute, 2013, 60 p. The report, produced by the U.S.-Russian Expert Group on the Afghan Narcotrafficking, critically reexamines the general driving forces behind the opium economy in Afghanistan, including the links between drugs, the socio-economic environment, corruption, militancy, and governance failure; and the main patterns of transnational trafficking of Afghan opiates and related money laundering. It also explores Russian and U.S. respective interests, concerns, strategies, and capacities and shows that the United States and Russia are threatened by different aspects of Afghan narcotrafficking and to a significantly different extent, which partly explains why Washington and Moscow tend to emphasize different aspects of counternarcotics in Afghanistan. Finally, the report identifies points of shared concerns about the broader implications of Afghan narcotrafficking, including links to global transnational crime and money laundering and more specific links to the dysfunction of the state, corruption, and armed violence within and around Afghanistan. The principal author of this report is head of IMEMO's Peace and Conflict Studies Unit Dr Ekaterina Stepanova.